Gaurav Madan

DARE TO DREAM. ENDURE TO CONQUER

A 100 Mile Debut on India’s Toughest Trails

People should learn endurance; they should learn to endure the discomforts of heat and cold, hunger and thirst; they should learn to be patient when receiving abuse and scorn; for it is the practice of endurance that quenches the fire of worldly passions which is burning up their bodies.

--Buddha

On a bright sunny morning was walking a zombie dressed up in red-blue-white; wearing a mask of heedless expressions; knees wrapped up in bandages and tapes and shoes adsorbed with barren red soils, he dragged his head up to see the first aid station in past hour and a half. Long breathes and ‘keep pushing’ was all he could hear in his mind –that was indubitably shattered after toil of over 28 hours. With tee and skin soaked in liters of sweat and a bit of salt, he collapsed on chair limping his way through loud round of applauds.

“Just two more laps, Gaurav. Great!” said Kavitha, race director, handling him a bottle of water.

“I’m dehydrated, I guess. It’s really hot outside” he whispered.

“No, it’s not. It’s chilling winter out there boy. Mercury is dropping every minute. It’s all in your mind” insisted Milind, who was relaxing on floor.

Zombie was still bearing the face of grim. Electral, juice, biscuits and oranges were offered from either side by the volunteers still left, while medical staff kept him busy recording weight and blood pressure –a mandatory process to be followed after each loop.

Welcome to Bhati Lakes. “GR Bhati Lakes Ultramarathon” is an annual and India’s only 100m ultramarathon (it’s 100 miles and not 100 meters) organized by ‘Globeracers’ on Delhi-Faridabad border at Kant Enclave in Suraj Kund. The first glimpses of Kant Enclave might exhibit another lame solid track with minor elevations, but reality is fairly opposite. A track that has seen only one finisher in history and runners like Roger and Rahul Verghese falling to its impregnable fury, speak volumes about what that track has to offer. 100 miles or 160km are divided into 8 laps of 20km each spread along 10km stretch which is required to traverse to form a loop. Trail, spread across jungles around 5 lakes of long abandoned Bhati mines, apparently has no flat surface whatsoever to sprint your way through. What makes it more miserable are the night hours where the only source of light is your headlamp or the aid station.

Generous cut-off time of 36 hours for 100 miles is something that might attract runners from the subcontinent that still has few runners that dare to go beyond the word limit. At age of 23 years and few months, I was youngest to attempt the 100 mile roller-coaster ride.

Throughout this report (if this looks like one), I’ll not use words like race, competition, competitors, winner, PR, position or loser, as these had no meaning during the entire marathon.

Prologue

I believe I was the most instigated runner when I saw registration invite for first edition of Bhati Lakes Ultramarathon in 2010. With a BADWATER dream in eyes, it was a luxury to have an ultramarathon worth 50 miles (or more) in my own backyard at such tender stage. Unfortunately, exam schedule didn’t allow me to run.

Early in the month of June, I had a word with Vishwas regarding my 50 mile attempt in October while discussing future plans. It was the stage when he tempted me to go a step ahead and aim for 100 mile. I was weary of making such a huge commitment. Longest run under my bag was 50km with Delhi Runners which was slightly hot to handle. Days passed and I kept logging undisciplined miles in cool evenings. 12 hour log and then Birthday 102km marked the important breakthroughs in training that made me believe 160km was something achievable.

Since, all the training was on asphalt tracks I was still an alien for loose and rough trails like those of Bhati mines. Meanwhile, I logged a few miles on Bhati trail to check the comfort and some photography. It was beautiful but difficult, silent but terrifying, lonely but with some friendly wildlife. I decided to run the marathon without the crew –as I was not sure about my finish and then there was no point making someone toil for 36 hours and then scoring a DNF on our name.

Nervousness kept amplifying as time progressed. I had read somewhere –one must log 1000-1500 miles of dedicated training –figures that were nowhere close to my logged miles. At the same time Dr Chauhan guided during the La Ultra “it’s the amount of time you spent on feet that matters. Distance in just a mental barrier” which was fair enough. Last week kept me busy collecting the gear required, as per Kavitha’s summon –a headlamp, reflective night wear, whistle, batteries, energy drinks, cleaned shoes, round band aids (you know why) and all other jazz.

The 100 miles of life

Friday was busy and night was sure supposed to be sleepless. I left home early at 2am after having late dinner (or early breakfast) with fellow 100 mile runners, Aparna and Aditya –who was generous to arrange a cab for us to reach the venue during those odd hours. We were the first to reach and welcome a few known and unknown faces –who dared to register and had guts to start! Soon, model and actor, Milind Soman arrived with another fellow 100 mile runner, Raj.

While all were going through the mandatory procedure of medical checkup, we kept cracking jokes to calm our nerves and laugh away the terror-nervousness-excitement (?), don’t know still, what was that. All I remember is, it was getting over me. Physically, I don’t have great deal of strength and stamina in me. All that I always had was will to succeed and mental calmness –that I was losing.

“So, how are you feeling? All set for the 100 miles!” asked Rahul.

“Don’t know. I’m developing goose bumps now”

Soon, at 6am (5.57am, being precise) all 100 mile runners –Vishwas Bhamburkar (Ahmedabad), Aditya Bee (Delhi), Bhupendrasing Rajput (Pune), Raj Vadgama (Mumbai), Milind Soman (Mumbai), Aparna Chaudhary (Pune) –lone female runner and I, were lined up on the start line with Tanvir Kazmi, who was pacing Vishwas. I realized I was standing at the start line now and from there, it was no way back. I was thrilled. It was supposed to start this in a few seconds that I didn’t even dream of. A torture of 36 hours was calling.

As soon as Kavitha flagged off, I was off to a blazing 10 minute mile start with others. Did I say blazing? Certainly it was, considering the way things progressed thereafter. The tarmac was the easiest phase to run –asphalt with a topping of loose gravel –with silence of graveyard. It was just our shoes to break the silence and head lamps to slice the dwindling darkness of the morning. As we moved, it was getting brighter and head lamps were mere the extra load to carry.

The track was indubitably toughest that most runners had seen. The initial flat 2km tarmac lead us into the trail spread through the barren but arboraceous jungle of thorny weeds. With every passing mile the inclines were getting steeper, surface was getting rougher, rain ridden gorges were getting wider and thereby running was getting tougher. I would call 10kmph a fierce speed. The first half of the route was comparatively lesser complicated than second half offered.

After 5km mark, the track got narrower with larger gorges, more elevation transitions, bleeding thorns (that left none) and sandy surface that demanded extra force. On the second half alone, I twisted my ankle seven times in total –fortunately none of the twist was poignant enough to extenuate the spirits. All those sandy twists lead across the five lakes on either side. One could easily lose their way there, the way Bhupendrasing did (he certainly lost valuable minutes). The morning view of Bhardwaj Lake was divine. While moving across the trail, I didn't ask for the meaning of the song of a bird or the rising of the sun on the misty morning. There they were, and they were beautiful. I ran slowly, steadily enjoying each passing moment as I knew this is something that would keep me going over the next couple of hours once heat will get rough.

The narrow-thorny-sandy-placid trail led us to the turnaround point, the 10km aid station through a gorge, biggest of all that was required to cross with safety. At aid station, there were volunteers to greet us with refreshments, water and energy drinks. After a halt of 3 minutes I was back running towards the start line to complete the loop. During the process, I ran into 30 mile and 50 mile runners along with fellow 100 mile runners who were progressing steadily.

Soon I was back on the tarmac and I could see the aid station crowded with runners, who were being assessed medically by Artemis Hospital staff. I quickly refilled my water bottle, got weighed and grabbed three quarter-sandwiches along with little Electral. After having a little chat with honeyman, Preet Singh, I kept going.

The heat was building up and I could feel it now. After 2.5km mark, suddenly I incapacitated. That marked the decline of 100 mile dream. Out of nowhere I developed stomach cramps that were hard to handle. I could barely walk then; running was out of the question. I could sense the distress and nausea. I knew I wouldn’t die of the stomach ache, so I told myself “In worst case, I would just puke out. Then eat again and continue. Stopping makes no sense here.” But I could see the castle of dreams falling like pack of cards in front of me. My life’s first DNF was calling me on the wrong day.

I decided to walk my way for this lap until the sore feeling was there. Things were getting rough. Sun was getting brighter, sandy ground was radiating heat, body was losing water, but I couldn’t drink because of stomach distress. Somehow, I managed to reach the 10km aid station stumbling over the rocks on declivous trails –three ankle twists, I remember.

Rahul, Aditya and Ankush were already there. Surprisingly, Aditya was facing the same problem few minutes ago, but fortunately he was out of it and was in perfect fitness. I sat there and relaxed for 10 minutes with a hope that things might settle. But, no visible progress was there. Water was sprayed on my head while I was taking electrolytes to keep the check over fluid balance. Then I had 3 small scoops of honey and decided to keep going with the poor stomach. As I progressed chasing the trio, things appeared to get better. I could walk briskly now and soon within 3km I was slowly running the slopes again.

I was getting better and faster with every passing mile and soon that grim feeling was getting lighter. The body language was changed, I was smiling again and I could sense, it’s possible now. However, the distress was still there. I finished 40km, relaxed there for a minute or two and was back on the track with the same creepy feeling. Fortunately, this time it didn’t bother me as hysterically as it did earlier. I kept going slowly just to make sure while my body was attaining the stability, I was in motion. Soon, I was pacing good then.

It started to get darker again by the time I finished the third loop. Due to security concerns associated with the jungle, which was macabre. The laps were reduced to 10km distance and turnaround point was the 5km aid station. The loop distance was sure reduced, but that was a defile in mental calculation that was dealing with neither hours nor the distance, but the number of loops. I took a break for a while; I had the first meal of the day and was back on track chasing the darkness in no time grabbing the headlamp again. I decide to run this one quickly so that I can have another lap under my belt before it got darker.

On my way back, it was dark. There was silence of dead. I was no more aware of my surroundings. All I could see was the earth 5m ahead of me. I didn’t know what was beyond that or what lied underneath my feet. 'Abandoned Bhati mines' may be called that, but really it's so full of life, life you would never see here in Delhi. And at night that life really came out to play. Monkeys, spiders, lizards and snakes, mice and rats, bulls, jackals, camels, birds and other flying things that would hit me in the head in the middle of the night, or fly into my unzipped jersey or strange sounds of some animal chasing, whatever that was? It's hard to put into words. While being there, I had my own fears to conquer –the darkness, the jungles, the animals and the terrain.

Darkness reduced all of us to walking on the trail and slow running on the tarmac. Being reduced to walking was the last thing I wanted. The mercury was dropping and so was the plan. I stepped on that track in the morning with a thought that I would cover maximum distance at night at faster speed in the cold hours. And now, the plan was shattered. Carving my way through the trails, I kept walking briskly. To break the silence, it was not just my shoes now, but the entire wildlife of the jungles dominated by jackals and dogs.

I was virtually at half way mark now. 50 miles were done and the same was left to be done. I was no more thinking about the distance covered or what was left to travel. The plan was to stay in motion throughout the night and log as much laps as I can. The monkey of cut-off time was another concern to be taken guard of. Thus, speed mattered now. I kept moving alone, along the trails with under my headlamp wearing the reflective tape.

While briskly walking the third lap I was stuck by another blow. My lower back developed sprain that was hindering the progress. This forced me to relax for while at the aid station. I was lying on the floor planning the progress to be made further. Aparna was relaxing next to me and soon Bhupendrasing joined us. I woke up Aparna and we all started to head back together. Since I was still in pain, I decided to follow the speed of Bhupendrasing and hang around him for as much time as possible. As we reached back tarmac, right knee started to cramp. I asked Aparna and Bhupendrasing to continue while I stretched by knee a bit. I was distasteful but I kept going.

At aid station, I got my lower back and knee massaged by the medical support and was back off to log another lap with Aparna after having a quick dinner. Meanwhile, the legendary ultra runner, and lone finisher of Bhati Lakes, Arun Bhardwaj was there to boost our spirit and reignite the dying pace of Milind. Aditya was relaxing in the tent falling to the sprained knees. I was feeling terribly sleepy. It was over 40 hours ago when my body rested for last time. To make it worse, I was actually hallucinating. I remember what happened until 102km mark when Aparna decided to sleep on the track in the middle of nowhere and I accompanied her. She had a quick 15 minute nap while I rested my knee and back; and decided to walk our way again, relatively slowly though.

I’m not sure about Aparna, but I was hallucinating now. I do not remember what happened in that lap, as I was not in my senses. In short, I was sleep-walking. I could no more sense the surface or my surroundings, I was just moving like a zombie after that. While returning back to aid station from turnaround accompanied by Vishwas (who was being paced by his crew member and exceptional runner, Piyush Shah) I realized, we had just 90 more minutes to meet the cut-off and still we were short by 12km. It was getting slightly brighter, so were running the downhill and flat surface and walking the uphill. After surviving the cut-off by 3 minutes, we rested for a while and kept going.

The unexpected was waiting for us on the next turn. The day was getting brighter every minute and soon I realized, what I was praying for whole night, was nothing but hell. With every passing mile, it was getting difficult to continue.

“I’m feeling tired now” I said to Prateek, who was escorting the 5km aid station.

“After 30 hours of running!?” he popped out with perplexity, while spraying the water on my head.

I was dehydrating and I could sense that in my urine. So, now I was tired, sleepy, hallucinating, hungry, dehydrated with cramped back and right knee. I was getting my back massaged when Raj and Aditya joined in at the aid station. It was inspiring to see all the 100 mile runners still on track chasing their personal milestones even after 30 hours –just Bhupendrasing was missing, who had conquered the castle of dreams already, a smart runner he is.

I limped my way back to finish 140km. I was feeling lost. Body was not holding it anymore and all negative thoughts were dominating the mind. For the first time, I lost my mental balance and though process was so much in chaos that I wasn’t able to head even my voice, applauds of volunteers was out of question. I could see a DNF right in front of me. Shattered and lost –my mind believed.

While I was relaxing on chair trying to gain the mental balance, Kavitha came for the support, helped my regain the hydration and survive the scorching heat. I wasn’t feeling like standing again and walk another lap. I was losing that WILL. A million trials and all were failed to motivate myself with positive thoughts. On the other hand, after holding it for 140km, I didn’t want to let it go like this.

There, Aditya came as my savior and said that he’ll lead us in this loop. With his aching knee, he was ready to give his all so that I could finish. Kavitha kept a piece of ice under my cap and we left the aid station to a journey that was leading to eternity. Suddenly, the 5km was looking like a 100 mile and 10km, a lifetime. Aditya kept pushing me along making sure, he was not being harsh with my body. Limping our way, soon we reached the 5km aid station in the hottest time of the day. Only respite was that day was expected to get cooler by the time we start our last lap.

Pushing across my barriers we reached back aid station to accomplish yet another lap. We were just one lap away from our dream. But, I wasn’t feeling the thrill. The spirit of running, the joy, the mental calmness, physical strength, the will to move and energy –all was dead.

“Please, I don’t want to lose it now. I want to finish.” I blubbed to Aditya.

Holding my back with both hands, loaded with chilled water bottles and a bit of honey-banana-biscuits, I took off the aid station for one last time with Aparna and Aditya. Day was getting cooler and walking was no more a problem. Just that back was almost crushed into pieces that faced the blows of that terrible terrain through past 33 hours. While Aditya and Aparna were walking their strongly, I was trailing behind by a few feet, limping. The climbs were getting tougher for me. As we reached the aid station, I made an extended 10 minute halt than planned 3 minute half, to get my back fixed for the third time in past 14 hours.

“Enjoy the beauty of this place, Gaurav. This is the last time you’re experiencing this. Let this breeze enter into you for one last time. Enjoy boy.” said Aditya with great excitement.

I was actually feeling it now. Just 40-50 more minutes and the torture of lifetime will be over to lend the glory for the lifetime. We kept placing one step in front of the other and thus logging the final miles. I always asked the ultrarunners how does feel being on the 99^th mile. And they never used to explain me.

I got my answer there. It’s “absolutely nothing”.

I could feel it. We were back on the tarmac and the trail seemed like never ending. Soon, Aparna started running as she could see the finish line. I had no guts to give myself a shot on running to give it an electrifying finish. But, as soon as I reached with the 150m distance, I couldn’t resist myself. I started running and soon I was flying. I could feel all the pain, misery, and tiredness being dissolved in the joy, proud and moment of completeness that was supposed to stay with me for the entire lifetime.

I ran madly with Bhupendrasing and Aditya and gave it an electrifying finish.

The aid station exploded with applauds of all who were there waiting for us to finish. Appreciations were all I could hear while I was rehydrating myself with eyes flooding in silent tears. Soon I got the souvenir I toiled for, “GR Bhati Lakes 100 Ultramarathon” finisher’s medal.

After a brief photo session, beer party, and moment of appreciation I was all relaxed. However, for me, it was still hard to believe I was a member of 100 mile club, and probably I was youngest member (or one among the youngest) from my country.

I was highly obliged to have runners like Aditya, Arun, Aparna, Kavitha, Vishwas, Raj, Milind and Piyush around me throughout the course to keep the fire ignited for daunting 36 hours and make me a proud finisher.

Describing the emotions is a hard thing to do. Similarly, putting the hallowed feeling of accomplishing your dream into words is something out of reach of a raw-ordinary human like me.

Epilogue

Soon, I reached back home. I could barely walk. Eyes were crying for sleep, legs were demanding mercy and stomach was waning off scoff lapse. I hadn’t dumped in past 40 hours, so stomach was heavy off all consumed over past two days. As soon as I entered home, I removed the shoes, closely looked the huge blister underneath right foot, embraced the medal and rushed to the washroom. This might sound creepy, funny or filthy, but I had a good 30 minute nap sitting on commode. A 20 minute cold shower was enough to calm the tired body.

RICE was all in my mind as my right knee getting worse. Icing, dinner and little chat with family is all remember before I was lost in the world of dreams on my bed only to ensure, I was alive. Next morning, I woke up fresh and was feeling all the mental fitness again –motionless, stiff and cramping knee, quads, calves, ankle, feet, butt, lower back, shoulders and neck were the secondary issues to deal with.

Magic is not that I was back on work next morning; neither is it the revival off the stomach cramps and stiff knee, nor is the 150m sprint to the finish line with sore back and lambasted right knee. Magic is “I had the courage to take up the challenge and start”

Before I sign off, there few acknowledgements, without which the victory is tasteless –Aditya Bee (for making me hang there when I was losing it), Aparna (for accompanying throughout last 70km), Vishwas (for igniting the 100 mile fire), Rahul Verghese (for helping me discover a runner in me who could run beyond 21km), Dr. Rajat Chauhan (for guiding my way through) and last, but by no means the least, Team Kavitha and the volunteers (for putting on a tremendous show with exceptional patience).

“Do not lose hold of your dreams, or aspirations. For if you do, you may still exist, but cease to live…”

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Looks an utterly obnoxious post, but my friend you will find it useful, no matter in what way. Recently, I was searching for something toxic like these. Easy ways to commit suicide. But soon the extensive research drawn out the following conclusion. So, if you are planning to commit suicide by any of these ways, so please stay alert, none of them really gonna work. Here is Health and Survival's top Eight list of "Drugs you shouldn't try if you are about to commit suicide."

Number Eight...... Table Salt (Sodium Chloride [NaCl]) (Namak- that you use in Kitchen)

If this wild thought has ever come to your mind, that you were planning to plot the full stop on your annoying life by table salt, then please don't try it. It's not going to work, until or unless you are in extreme dry conditions. Yes, if you consume lots of salt in that condition, then you can die off dehydration. It's quite popular dialog "Tumne, hamaara namak khaya hai", so it's not supposed to end your life like that. True, that excess of everything can take your life, but "namak" not at all. If you plan to kill yourself by consuming lots of salt water, then believe, you'll vomit everything out way before you even think of dieing.

Number Seven...... Radioactive substance (like Uranium, Plutonium, Lutetium, etc )

First thing, you'll have to put every drop of your blood on sake, to get your hands on these, as they are not easily available. Even, if somehow any 'best and honest' friend of yours or uncle or 'favorite' foe provides you any such substance, then you're not going to die that soon. It'll take three whole days to die after consuming those. And those three days will be most painful days of your life as you'll be blessed with extreme nausea and massive diarrhea. Don't die like this at least. Even its radiation will affect people around you. Have some mercy for them at least. Like I have for you.

Number Six...... Methanol (Younger brother of Ethanol (alcohol))

Well, until ethanol, it was right, but from where the hell, this methanol came? You must be wondering that. Well, methanol is younger brother of ethanol. Unlike ethanol, which is derived from sugarcane ('bagasse' being more precise), methanol is derived from wood (yes, other methods are followed too, now). It is a well known toxic substance and easily available (due to its wide uses). It'll kill you as soon as you drink it. But, please be sure, you take a good amount of it. Because, in worst case, if you survived you'll be either blind forever (that will surely make your way difficult to succeed in your next attempt) or it can leave holes in your brain. You can imagine that pain and suffering. So, I'd say, avoid it. It's better to try something else.

Number Five...... Carcinogen (Cancer causing agents)

It's a whooping option for anyone who has studied biology till high school or is very aware of what's happening around. Well, we deal daily with a whole bunch of carcinogens. So, you can find easily. Committing suicide with carcinogens is a nice new idea, i suppose. Most of you had never even thought of that. But, now you'll take it as an option. Again, I'll say, that'll be the most foolish act of your life before you die. Carcinogens will kill you, that's for sure, 100% guaranteed. But, procedure is quite long. The day you take whole lot of carcinogens, they'll start killing you. Cancer will develop in your body over months and years, and you'll die one of the most painful deaths. So, I'll recommend to avoid this. Delhi roads are always there to welcome you. We have contractors of Yamraj, Blueline drives, they are much better option than carcinogens.

Number Four...... Corrosive Substances

I'm not talking about rusted iron. I guarantee, you must have thought of them every moment. These are hot favorite ways to commit suicide in India, as they are easily available and you need not to spend your pocket money to purchase new. Well, these include common household chemicals like bleach, oven cleaner (Sodium Hydroxide [NaOH]), Chlorine (for the pool), how can we forget Phenyl used to clean floors and last but not the least stockpiled Sulphuric Acid you use at garage. You people must have thought of these. But, probably you are wrong. Being strongly acidic or strongly alkaline, these chemicals will corrode anything organic, including your mouth, esophagus, and stomach. Then all of your stomach acid will escape into the trunk of your body, dissolving your internal organs. That doesn't sound terrible at all, does it?

Number Three...... Strychnine

Strychnine is a very toxic, colorless crystalline alkaloid used as a pesticide, particularly for killing small vertebrates such as birds and rodents. Strychnine causes muscular convulsions and eventually death through asphyxia or sheer exhaustion. The most common source is from the seeds of the Strychnos nux vomica tree. It's damn painful and terrifying way to die and nice one to try out. You remain fully conscious and coherent as you experience repeated bouts of violent convulsions until finally your lungs stop working and you asphyxiate.


Number Two...... Paraquat

Paraquat is a herbicide found in many weed control products (e.g. Gramoxone). If you drink enough of it, you'll experience the joys of multisystem organ failure with death occurring within hours to a few days. However, should you fail to drink enough of it, it will selectively accumulate and persist in your lungs and slowly eat away at them while you spend several weeks gasping for breath in terrible pain before you expire. There is currently no antidote, and even people who manage to get lung transplants find that their new lungs are eventually destroyed as well, since the poison also hangs out in the fat surrounding them. Sadly, it is widely used as a means of suicide in the third world.

Number One...... Acetaminophen

Don't scratch your head. It's a drug and very popular one. Might, you haven't heard of that before. Of course, this is your first attempt to commit suicide, right! It is your favorite 'Paracetamol' only, and Tylenol of course. It is the most common cause of intentional self poisoning in adults, as it is cheaper than a toffee and easily available. What doesn't appear to be widely available is the knowledge that this analgesic is highly toxic to pretty much just the liver and kidneys. So, even if you take a lot of tablets it'll take two days to destroy your liver and kidneys, and pain will be excruciating. And, in worst case your parents rush to the best doctor and he saves you somehow, then you'll be living with one kidney and a damaged liver at maximum. Howzatt dude ?

WORLD WAR III:

The inevitable is bustling

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“To find the corpses of your beloved in the debris;

to find the air and the water exploding;

to be waned by scoff lapse;

to be thrilled by the dark before solar collapse;

to be elated over a storm's zing or the raining stings in the spring;

- these are some of the rewards of testing nature’s ire”

–Gaurav Madan, The OutBreak (yet to publish)

One of the toughest things for people to do is to anticipate sudden change. Conventionally we project the future by extrapolating from trends in the past. Most of the times, this approach works well. But sometimes it fails spectacularly, and people are simply blindsided by events such as today’s economic crises, food crises, fuel crises, pollution, exemplified overpopulation, booming global temperatures, rising sea level, intensifying storms, waning green cover and global fresh water famine –invading synchronically.

For most of us, the idea that civilization itself could disintegrate probably seems preposterous. Who would not find it hard to think seriously about such a complete departure from what we expect of ordinary life? What evidence could make us head a warming so dire –and how would we go about responding to it? We are so inured to a long list of highly unlikely catastrophes, displayed by news channels as ‘End of the World in 2012’, that we are virtually programmed to dismiss them all with a wave of the hand. Sure, our civilization might develop into chaos –and our planet might collide with an asteroid too!

Since past 2 years I have excogitated global agricultural, population, environmental and economic trends and their interactions and impact on the planet and humans. The combined effects of those trends and the political tensions they generate point to the breakdown of governments and societies. Our continuing failure to deal with the environmental declines that are undermining the world food economy –most important, falling water tables, eroding soils and rising temperatures –forces to conclude that such a collapse is possible.

PROLIFERATE: THE NEW HUMAN NATURE

From the first glimpses, one is almost certain to be qualmish of demographics, or –for purpose of mental hygiene and financial gain –to somehow manipulate the uneasiness or distrust in order to shy away from the truth of overpopulation and what it means for all of us. Yet the numeric verities are not easily obscured or eluded. Leafing through countless tomes of statistics, one’s impatience and skepticism turn to real alarm. The sheer weight of numbers known vaguely to be human beings, the burden of their illimitable data, and the substantial meaning of out impact, escalate in the psyche at a speed approaching four human births every second, over fourteen thousand per hour, nearly one hundred million per year, begging for a quality of life that is increasingly impossible to satisfy. As other species quietly, rapidly, fade away and the imbalance of human numbers continues to escalate, a hint of substantial personal peril surfaces, as if one’s life were suddenly held hostage by cosmic forces totally out of control. Yet unlike, say, a hurricane, we alone are to answer for this situation. Only we can ameliorate, and hopefully reverse, the debacle of our unrelenting proliferation.

Early ecologists explained the growth of population of animal species, including humans, through an S-shaped curve –which starts slowly, then rises steeply and then becomes almost constant. Bacterial population growth, however, was explained under J-shaped –which starts slowly, rises really sharply and then falls like world trade center on 9/11. The obnoxious rise in the human number has lead to crash of all the pre-calculations to give rise to new stories by our pens. Our relentless rising numbers have pushed Earth to threshold, where even a minor change can lead to the collapse, the world has never seen.

Use of condoms in countries with high false “orthodox” feelings, like in India for example, is less thereby unprotected sex leads to the rising numbers, especially in low-literate areas like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where each couple has over 6-7 descendants (By no way I want to pin point any particular state). But in the most alarming, existential sense, contact with overpopulated human world easily dispatches reflective individuals toward unrelieved darkness, mired and subsumed in quantities, zeroes, and decimal points beyond their ken. No single capability can circumvent this unimaginably teeming future. Overpopulation, from the perspective of the individual, can be thoroughly debilitating. Panic, escapism, homophobia, wrath, persistent forlorn and bitter fatalism are all patterns associated with today’s unprecedented densification of human beings. The humdrum surface of family planning is imprinted with every living miracle, every child, but also totally conceals the lurking horrors of human impact. The term “family planning” and its politically correct intensions conceal something like one hundred million sex acts a day. But then, beyond the few moments of carnal pleasure, comes the biological truth: The universal contractions, the chasm of darkness out of which the human miracle tastes the honeyed light and fresh air. These merciless moments are generating more and more humans to bring the things up whose anatomy and aftermath has been mentioned in later stages.

But the casual observer will be struck by the unthinkably acute whorl of pain directly beneath and to all sides of humanity’s fertility and global pestilence: the collision course, long in the making, between human and the biosphere and the final results. For purpose of absolute clarity, I call it “WORLD WAR III”. But unlike the previous two wars, this is the final war. Einstein rightly said,” I don’t know with what World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and pebbles”.

HYDROPANDEMONIUM: CRISIS IS ON

Humanity is furiously engaged in World War III at this time. Our increasing numbers are bearing down on Earth’s finite resilience. We are using nature as ammunition for our many struggles amongst ourselves (economic, political, cultural, etc), while directly assaulting and out maneuvering her every flank. The relentless rise in human population has generated a new surge in mankind for food to eat, land for shelter and water for hygiene and drinking. To support such a large amount of population, millions of hectares of land are being wiped off daily, which definitely has lead marked decline in land’s water binding capacity to replenish ground water reserves.

One hundred and ten thousand cubic kilometers of precipitation, nearly 10 times the volume of Lake Superior falls from the sky onto the earth’s land surface every year. This huge quantity would be enough to easily fulfill the requirements of everyone on the planet if the water arrived where and when people needed it. But much of it cannot be captured, and the rest is distributed unevenly. More than half of the precipitation that falls on land is never available for capture or storage because it evaporates from the ground (more due to rising temperatures) or transpires from plants; this fraction is called green water. The remainder channels into so called blue water sources –rivers, lakes, wetlands and aquifers –that people can tap directly. Farm irrigation from these free-flowing bodies is the biggest single human use of freshwater. Cities and industries consume only tiny amounts of total freshwater resources, but the intense local demand they create often drains the surroundings of ready supplies.

At an average, every human on this planet require 1 million litres for drinking, hygiene and growing food. These are just minor stats of what exactly we exploit. 11,000 litres of water is consumed in making your 1 pair of denim jeans, 10 litres of water in making an A4 sheet that you waste like hell while photocopying or printing, jute industry consume tons of water daily for processing and no need to mention how alcohol industry is consuming the holy fluid to generate beer, wine and whisky. Things are clear, we need to decrease the consumption or find some alternative; just closing eyes out of problems, won’t provide the solution.

Providing adequate water is especially challenging in drier, underdeveloped and developing nations with large populations, because demand in those areas is high and supply is real low. Rivers like Nile, Yangtze and the Great Ganges are not only overtaxed, they also now regularly peter out for long periods during the year. And the levels of the underground aquifers below New Delhi, Beijing and many other burgeoning urban areas are falling. Every year, even in the developed countries like United States, the lakes record their ongoing declines with successive, chalky high water marks left on their tall canyon walls like so many bathtub rings.

Given the difficulties of sensibly apportioning the water supply within a single nation, imagine the complexities of doing so for international river basins such as that of the Jordan River, which borders on Lebanon, Syria, Israel, the Palestinian areas and the Jordan, all of which claims to be shared, but limited, supply is an extremely parched region. The struggle for freshwater has contributed to civil and military disputes in not only these areas, but they are quite common within different state of same nation as well (Indians are well aware of such instances from Haryana, UP and Bihar). Only continuing negotiations and compromise have kept this tense situation under control so far, otherwise, we would have been witnessing “BATTLE OF WATER”.

In countries like India, China and other Asian and American countries facing near drought are being forced to opt for irrigation, taking water out of the land to fulfill their need for farms and personal use. Usually aquifers are replenishable, but some of the most important ones are not: the “fossil” aquifers, so called because they store ancient waters, are not recharged by precipitation. In China the water table under the North China Plain, an area that produces more than half of the country’s wheat and a third of its corn, is falling fast. Over pumping has used up most of the water in a shallow aquifer there, forcing well drillers to turn to the region’s deep aquifer, which is not replenishable.

But water shortages are even more worrying in India. The margin between food consumption and survival is more precarious. Millions of irrigation wells have dropped water tables in almost every year. A World Bank report says that 20% of India’s food supply is produced by mining the ground water. Stats wise, 175 million Indians consume grain produced with water from irrigation wells that will soon be exhausted. The continued shrinking of water supplies could lead to unmanageable food shortages and conflicts. Irrigation is not just the right to way to act, as to pump water deep from the wells, requires a huge amount of energy, sometimes more than 50% of total electricity produced by burning fossil fuels, which are again adding to rising temperatures, another reason of water shortage. So, biggest challenge is irrigation, which is also leading to salting of coastal aquifers leading to so many more serious problems which are beyond a normal farmer’s imagination. The international communities can reduce the chances of a global water crisis if it puts it collective mind to the challenge. Solving the water problem will not be easy, but we can succeed if we start right away and stick to it. Otherwise, much of the world will go thirsty.

CLAMOR OF MILLIONS: ANYONE TO LISTEN?

Untimely precipitation at uneventful places, flooding unsullied communities and slaying away unalloyed food for millions- aren’t they a daily news now. You can blame global warming and forget, as food is easily available to you, though sometimes at little higher costs. If ignorance was a solution, probably India would have been the richest in the world. In six of the past nine years world grain production has fallen short of consumption, forcing a steady drawdown in stocks. When the 2008 harvest began, world carryover stocks of grain (the amount in the bin when the new harvest begins) were at 62 days of consumption, a record low. In response, world grain prices in the spring and summer of last year climbed to the highest level ever.

As demand for food rises faster than supplies are growing, the resulting food-price inflation puts severe stress on the governments of countries already teetering on the edge of the chaos. Unable to buy grain or grow their own, hungry people take to the stresses. But if the food situation continues to deteriorate, entire nations will break down at an ever increasing rate. We have entered into 21^st century, an era of geopolitics. In 20^th century the threat to international security was superpower conflict; but now it’s failing states. It’s not concentrating powers, but its absence that’s alarming. Nations fail when national governments can no longer provide personal security, food security and basic social services such as education and health care.

Agriculture faces a catastrophic future; crop production in declining and could cease altogether if steps are not taken to reverse soil erosion, degradation and the decline in soil fertility. In the past 40 years, the world has lost nearly all its forests in places with scanty rain and much of its top soil, forcing the countries to import more than half of its grain. The most persuasive environmental threat to food security –rising surface temperatures –can affect crop yields everywhere. In many countries, crops are grown near their thermal optimum, so even a minor temperature rise shrinks the harvest. A latest study suggests that –for every rise of one degree Celsius, wheat, rice and corn yields fall by 12 percent. Some experts point to genetically modified crop strains as a way out of our predicament. However, no genetically modified crops have led to dramatically higher yields; moreover, playing with nature is surely not a wise thing to do, when genetics of the food we eat alter.

The recent merging of the food and energy economies implies that if food value of grain is less than its fuel value, the market will move the grain to the energy economy. That double demand is leading to an epic competition between cars and people for the grain supply and to a political and moral issue of unprecedented dimensions. The recent surge in world grain prices is trend-driven, making it unlikely to reverse without a reversal in trends themselves.

Somalia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Chad, Iraq, Rep. of Congo, Afghanistan, Ivory Coast, Pakistan, etc. –these are just a few examples of the nations in the world where numbers are going the wrong way and are closest to collapse. When governments lose their monopoly on power, law and order begin to disintegrate. After a point, countries can become so dangerous that food relief workers are no longer safe and their programs are halted; in Somalia, Afghanistan and Pakistan, deteriorating conditions have already put such programs in jeopardy. They are of international concern as they are a source of terrorists, drugs, weapons and refugees, threatening political stability everywhere.

On the other hand, a dangerous politics of food security is coming into play; individual countries acting in their narrowly defined self-interest are actually worsening the plight of the many. Russia and Argentina have banned their wheat exports, in hopes of increasing locally available food supplies and thereby bringing down food prices domestically. Vietnam, the leading rice exporter, banned its exports for several months for the same reason. Such moves may reassure those living in the exporting countries, but they are creating panic in importing countries. In response, importers are nailing down bilateral trade agreements locking up future supplies. Soaring food prices and spreading hunger all over the world are beginning to break down the social order, leading to arm race which is directing the human to an appalling finish.

Since the current food shortage is trend driven, the environmental trends that cause it must be reversed. To do so requires extraordinary demanding measures –a massive effort to cut carbon emissions by 80 percent from their 2006 levels, the stabilization of World population at 8 billion, the eradication of poverty, and the restoration of forests, soils and aquifers. Net carbon dioxide emissions can be cut by investing massively in the development of renewable sources of energy. Stabilizing poverty go hand in hand, as smaller families ensures less poverty due to low food and space demands, and primary education can be ensured for all. Restoring earth’s natural resources incorporates a worldwide initiative to arrest the fall in water tables by raising water productivity.

There’s nothing new in these four objectives, they are being discussed since I was born. Indeed, we are hit by economic crises now following all these terrible conditions that no nation has enough to invest on such targets and take care of food shortage and social security simultaneously. Growing unemployment following global recession, falling Indo-Zhong trade relations and declining World stock markets are forcing us to stay mute spectator until the crises persist.

CHANGING TIMES: WORK OR REST IN PEACE

Agriculture as it exists today has been shaped by a climate system that has changed little in the 11000 year old history of farming. Because most crops were developed for maximum production under these stable conditions, the higher temperatures that are expected in global warming will reduce crop yield, measured in bushels per acre harvested. Global warming has triggered the climatic shift 600 years prior to the predictions of 19^th century experts with a 180 degree shift. Earlier predictions were for ice age and what is in front is a cinder to roast. Earth is heating up, generating more thunderous super storms, to be discussed in subsequent issues.

The effect which is more alarming and still not warmed up in discussions is tectonic plates surrounding Himalayas, both Indian tectonic plate and Han tectonic plate. These plates have shown motions in the recent months, leading to thunderous earthquakes in Pakistan, Jammu and Kashmir, China, Tibet, Assam, Bihar and West Bengal. Certainly, the plates are heating up and something is wrong with seismic activities of lava in the mantle, which is yet to be discovered. Delhi is next on cards to face largest seismic disaster in the history as per my calculations, with no prior training or work experience in a laboratory, just my observations with raw data available.

Our challenge is to act, that too quick enough in order to avert what’s in store in days to come. The world is in a race between political tipping points and natural ones. Can we close coal-fired power plants fast enough to prevent the Greenland ice sheet from slipping into the sea and inundating our coastlines? Can we cut carbon emissions fast enough to save the mountain glaciers of Asia? During the dry season their melt waters sustain the major rivers in India and China –and by extension, hundreds of millions of people. Can we stabilize population before countries such as India, Pakistan and Yemen are overwhelmed by shortages of the water they need to irrigate their crops?

None of the transformations will be possible, however, if the root cause of their desperate necessity –human behavior and demographic pressure –are not viewed with the appropriate sobriety. These strategic developments are all viewed as behavioral requirements for any true resuscitation of the natural environment, in which I include a natural human population, where children are loved and cared for, and their parents may find joy and dignity in their lives. Realistic curbs on overpopulation are only so good as our corresponding contemplation of, and behavior towards nature (an equation that encompasses our treatment of one another). Both are battle fronts; both family planning and ecological sustainability factor equally in our scaling back humanity’s unprecedented aggression against the Creation.

It’s hard to overstate the urgency of our predicament. Every day counts. Unfortunately, we do not know how long we can light our cities with coal, for instance, before Greenland’s ice sheet can no longer be saved. Nature sets the deadline and we are in maze to chase. We desperately need a new way of thinking, a new mind-set. The thinking got us into this blind will not get us out.

There’s nothing called fate. It’s the courage, right frame of mind and right conditions we need if civilization is to survive. We are no longer speaking about “utopia”, per se, but about ensuring a biological future. What is best may be beyond humanity’s reach, at present. But what is good may be possible.

OMENS ARE COMING…!!!

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“The wonders of nature bring into full bloom

Its colors and signs of seasonal bliss;

It draws the heart towards its vividful views

And undo the things that it should not miss"

These words are enough to present staggering beauty of Mother Nature. Nature nourishes the life on the planet like a mother, and the hands are like that of a potter, which gives a shape to persisting life forms. At every stage, the beauty and support of nature is inevitable which helps to survive in a wonderful manner.

WAIT…!!! What happens if these hands, which are building blocks of this planet itself, run wild ? What if the mother itself is on the kill ? The answer is formation of “Super Storms”.

“People sprinting down the track; walls and rooftops, sheds and fences, TVs, refrigerators and left over casseroles–lift from the earth and disappear in the dark, thick, more than a mile wide tornado. The pieces whirl high in the 200 mph winds, like so much random debris swept clean from the landscape.” This is not a scene of Steven Spielberg’s fiction movie, rather a crude reality when nature strikes.

Tornadoes (or better known as ‘Twisters’) are among earth’s most violent acts. Some are wispy and last only for seconds, whereas others rampage across the landscape for more than an hour, nearly engulfing entire landscape. Although tornadoes have been reported on every continent (taking Antarctica aside) even in India, but they hit United States more than any other country.

The word “tornado” is an altered form of Spanish word “tronada” which means “thunderstorm”. By definition, tornadoes are rotating columns of air that extend from swelling cumulonimbus clouds to the ground. Tornadoes come in many sizes, but are typically in the form of a condensation funnel, whose narrow end touches the earth and is often encircled by a cloud of debris. Dust kicked up by winds of the parent thunderstorm, heavy rains and hail and the darkness of night in the afternoon are few of the warnings during the arrival of these omens.

No one fully understands tornado dynamics, but certain ingredients seem essential to the witch’s brew from which tornadoes emerge: warm, humid air near the ground, colder air aloft, and shearing winds that change direction and speed with height. Tornadoes swirl high into the sky, but winds close to the ground appear to play a vital role in their birth. A mesocyclone gives rise to tornado, and it pulls in the warm, humid air from the surrounding land and propels it aloft through a powerful updraft. As long as surface winds feeding the updraft flow freely, no funnel develops. But if those winds are cut off –by a cold downdraft, for example –the surrounding mass of spinning air contracts and gains speed, producing a tornado. The more the vortex tightens, the faster the tornado spins –just as an ice skater spins faster by pulling her arms close to her body. Low pressure near the surface, however, can reverse the flow of air in the core –the strong updraft becomes a downdraft –ultimately unraveling the tornado. Tornadoes emit widely on the acoustics spectrum and the sounds are caused by multiple mechanisms. They also emit electromagnetic spectrum with pattern of lightening activity. The most destructive and deadly tornadoes form under the bellies of supercells, large long –lived thunderstorms, whose winds are already in rotation. 40% of all US tornadoes occur in central plains, when cool, dry air from the Rocky Mountains clashes with warm, moist undercurrents from Gulf of Mexico. Warmer the currents, stronger are the tornadoes, and hence, Global Warming is regularly fueling their strength. But, fortunately, only one in a thousand thunderstorms become a supercell, and only one in five or six supercells spawns a tornado.

Because it’s so difficult to measure tornado winds and power, scientists measure tornadoes by damage they cause. On the Fujita scale, developed by ‘Ted Theodore Fujita’ of University of Chicago and NOAA, an F1 storm causes moderate damage with wind speed around 100 mph , F5 is horrific with wind speed over 350 mph, destroying everything which comes in its path, even the concrete structures. F2 , F3 cause moderate damage , F4 is as violent as F5, with wind speed over 320 mph. Watching the damage done by the tornado in Manchester, South Dakota, USA in 2005, scientists are forced to reassign the classification and extend the rating to F6. It is surprising for you to know, that now, there is no city named Manchester in South Dakota on any map of this World.

The Outbreak is the occurrence of several tornadoes over a region, usually due to thunderstorms embedded in the same synoptic-scale weather system. Outbreaks are classified as according to area affected ; in local outbreaks, only a portion of one state is affected ; in regional outbreaks, two or three states contains all tornadoes ; in national outbreaks , tornadoes are reported in many states of the country. National outbreaks are the most deadly. Perhaps, once in every 10-15 years, the synoptic-scale weather pattern produces conditions favorable to the production of many storms, national outbreak, all over the Central USA. The biggest local outbreak ever, was reported in 2005 in Oklahoma City and Kansas City with as many as 66 tornadoes hitting in just 24 hours.

A category 5 cyclone takes at least 3 weeks to completely destroy a state or two. But, if an F5 tornado is left to molder for 3 days, then, certainly there will be no one there to see the damage done in entire continent.

Tornadoes are hitting and they will continue to dismantle and cause more and more damage in centuries to come. All we can do is just wait and watch the disaster and bite our nails in terror. We can hide on their arrival, but we can’t escape. Again, Global Warming is fueling them continuously and heat, their food, is providing them even more energy to spread the thrill, terror and sorrow for thousands. But, most important of all, don’t dare give a blind ear to weather scientists on their warnings, because that might prove to be the last mistake of your life….!!!!